Social Media Payroll Index

Prescient Models has developed an approach to predicting US nonfarm payroll levels using online activity via social media. This is a concurrent estimate rather than a true forecast, but as a weekly update, it is available well in advance of the monthly US Nonfarm Payroll estimates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. To make the series easy to use, is has been calibrated to the BLS seasonally adjusted estimates of the actual number of persons employed.

We at Prescient Models are interested in changes in nonfarm payroll as a predictor of consumer behavior. Changes in employment levels are the primary predictor of consumer delinquency, and also factor into consumer purchase, attrition, refinance, and payment behavior.

The internet is a rapidly changing environment, so we cannot guarantee long-term availability of this series, but as long as the underlying information is available, Prescient Models will provide these estimates as a guide to our users in their scenario design and forecasting activities.

The nationwide, concurrent estimate is available free and shown below. Clients who would like these series for specific states or metropolitan areas should contact sales@prescientmodels.com.

DISCLAIMER: Although the Contents contained herein are provided under the highest professional standards in the generation of these forecasts, Prescient Models LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein. Prescient Models LLC specifically disclaims all warranties express or implied with respect to the use of this information or any results with respect thereto. In addition the information contained herein shall in no way be construed to constitute a recommendation by Prescient Models LLC with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or its derivatives.